Will 2025 Bring Springtime For Startup M&As?

SUMMARY

Startup M&As are likely to shoot up by 58% in 2025, after a poor spell in 2024 when only 71 such deals were recorded

In 2022, the number of M&As in the Indian startup ecosystem shot up to 240, before halving in 2023 and then further falling in 2024 to its lowest point

The M&A wave in 2025 will be driven by highly capitalised listed companies as well as startups in fintech, ecommerce and consumer services spaces

Despite showing signs of a funding revival, the Indian startup ecosystem is in a peculiar place now. Most of the capital has been raised by companies in the public markets, which skewed the mergers and acquisitions (M&As) market in 2024. But will this have any ramifications on startup M&As in 2025?

With only 71 such deals recorded in 2024, it was the worst year for M&A deals in the Indian startup ecosystem over the decade. The second-lowest number in terms of M&As in the last 10 years was 82 in 2020. Post this, there was a funding revival which spurred on consolidation in key sectors like edtech, digital media and entertainment, and ecommerce.

In 2022, for instance, the number of M&As in the Indian startup ecosystem shot up to 240, before halving in 2023 and then further falling in 2024 to the nadir.

But looking beyond that, startup M&As are likely to shoot up by 58% in 2025, as more and more listed companies flex their capital. Sectors that are expected to witness the most number of M&As include — AI, edtech, ecommerce and consumer services as well as fintech.

One of the key reasons is the fact that most companies are looking to integrate automation into their operations and become AI-first, even as they experiment with new distribution channels and new products. This includes listed giants like PB Fintech, Nykaa, Paytm, Zomato, Swiggy, Nazara, Zaggle among others.

Startup M&As In 2024

These listed new-age companies are expected to flex their muscles and dictate the terms of the M&A market in the coming year.

Listed Giants To Pursue Strategic M&As In 2025

While the trend of distress sales or fire sales will likely continue for startups that have hit hard times, one new factor could very well emerge in 2025.

That’s listed new-age companies eyeing growth-stage startups with proven business models, and a measurable revenue boost. Sectors like fintech, enterprise tech, and consumer services are most likely to see this wave of established players acquiring startups either for the tech or to add new verticals. Which is where the QIP wave of 2024 gives us a hint or two.

In 2024, Zomato raised INR 8,500 Cr through a QIP, followed by Nazara’s INR 855 Cr preferential placement, and Zaggle which netted INR 595 Cr from its QIP. In 2025, we expect several such QIPs from the cohort of startups that went public between 2021 and 2023.

Listed companies in competitive sectors such as fintech and consumer tech segments prefer QIPs for fundraising as a means to reduce the regulatory and financial burden compared to options such as debt, secondary or rights issues. For instance, a QIP round would suit companies in competitive sectors such as Paytm or Nykaa, or even those like PB Fintech which are looking to expand into new segments.

Typically, such funds are allocated to new lines of business that came up after the public listing, such as acquisitions of adjacent or new verticals, investments in technology infrastructure (AI, in this day and age) or just for customer acquisition and brand-building for the long-term.

SaaS Startups, Edtech Consolidation On The Cards

The line between traditional SaaS and AI is fast blurring, as evidenced by the transformation seen by large SaaS giants such as Salesforce, Freshworks and Zoho. Other Indian SaaS companies are also busy integrating AI capabilities across their product suites to stay relevant in 2025.

In 2025, investors expect M&As to grow for sectors such as enterprise tech which are going through the AI churn and revolution. SaaS companies are shopping for tech capabilities, focussing on IP-led tech acquisitions. Watch for consolidation in areas like cybersecurity, cloud computing, and AI-enabled enterprise applications.

The edtech sector is also expected to be in for significant consolidation in 2025, with even unicorns likely to be acquired, particularly with continued speculation around Unacademy.

The market is maturing beyond the pandemic boom, and with the focus on sustainable business models, there’s little room for the splurging VC dollars as seen in the past. Watch for interesting combinations of online and offline models, particularly in test preparation and skill development segments.

The public listing of PhysicsWallah is also likely to be preceded by a few acquisitions, especially as the edtech giant continues its multi-product strategy.

Industry watchers expect more M&As to get through in 2025 as smaller startups become streamlined thanks to the adoption of AI models and after cost-cutting in key areas.

Analysts say that the bigger companies may keep an eye out for acquisitions in niche verticals as expansion will play out majorly in 2025. However, valuations may continue to see a big downward correction, relative to 2021-2022 numbers.

“Investors are now looking for real growth metrics in any edtech up for sale instead of vanity metrics like MAUs, DAUs. They also need a track record of financial discipline over the last couple of years rather than a sudden dip in costs,” according to a partner at a Delhi-based early stage VC firm.

Will Quick Commerce Giants Acquire Competition?

Vertical-specific quick commerce models are emerging as force breakers, with companies specialising in categories like fresh meat (Meatigo, Licious), medicines (Plazza, 1MG), fashion (Myntra, Slikk, Blip), food (Swiggy, Swish, Zing). While many of these platforms have the scale to sustain these quick commerce operations, several new startups will likely be at the mercy of VC funding to scale up.

Will investors back these new QC models or will these startups just become more acquisition targets for the giants?

Within QC, the focus for major players is shifting from customer acquisition to operational efficiency and sustainable unit economics either through the right product assortment or new categories.

It won’t be a surprise if some of this consolidation happens on the brand front if and when the delivery apps push for more private labels.

Dhruv Kapoor of Anicut Capital highlighted opportunities for vertical growth in quick commerce, where players could specialise in specific categories with streamlined supply chains for faster deliveries.

He noted that investors are now cautious, prioritising differentiation over more players in an already crowded market. This could lead to increased consolidation and new business models in the ecommerce space.

Plus, we can expect a tooth-and-nail battle in India’s metros for 10-minute cafe deliveries with Blinkit Bistro, Swiggy Snacc and Zepto Cafe. But other startups are also emerging, essentially turning the cloud kitchen model on its head by going logistics first.

Expect to see AI-driven demand mapping and automation in the kitchen being billed as moats for these apps. Some of these city-specific startups could fuel the next wave of M&As for well-capitalised giants in the quick commerce segment.