Beyond Easy Growth: Key Indian Ecommerce Trends For 2026

SUMMARY

The channel of origin no longer defines D2C; instead, it is about control — over consumer data, product, distribution, and unit economics, say analysts and VCs

Quick commerce has added new complexity to how D2C brands manage channels. Clear strategies and agile execution in this regard will be key in 2026

Marketplaces now feel compelled to build hyperlocal networks too, but replicating the speed of quick commerce isn't enough, product experience still counts for a lot

When 2025 kicked off, we put out eight predictions for how ecommerce would move through the year. By December, the market had delivered on almost every one of them, and often faster than expected.

As predicted, seed-stage ecommerce startups held investor attention, even as late-stage funding stayed selective. The omnichannel shift moved from boardroom intent to operational reality. Quick commerce redrew the entire demand map, changed FMCG playbooks and forced every large ecommerce platform to rethink time, distance and convenience as core levers. The scale achieved by Myntra 30 minutes delivery and Flipkart Minutes being the classic example here.

The public markets also turned into a central storyline. Meesho, boAt, Zepto and Curefoods lined up their IPO plans. Shiprocket and Shadowfax joined the queue with their draft filings. Capillary Technologies listed, signalling that ecommerce infrastructure firms may reach the public markets sooner than once assumed. Also, there is no denying the fact that more and more ecommerce companies are now getting ready to join the bandwagon.

Inside the engine room, AI too quietly began to rewire the core ecommerce workflows —from catalogue creation and routing to pricing and fraud checks — as pilots turn into scaled systems. Front-end personalisation and AI-led customer flows are already influencing conversions and margins.

But the biggest shift in 2025 may be around what D2C even means anymore. And this will determine where ecommerce as a whole goes in 2026.

The New Face Of D2C

The definition of direct-to-consumer (D2C) in India has evolved dramatically. For years, it referred to brands that manufactured, sold online first and entered offline retail only after reaching a certain scale. The likes of Nykaa, Mamaearth, Minimalist, Licious, boAt and Bombay Shaving Company built their early playbooks this way.

But as PwC’s partner Ravi Kapoor, who leads the retail and consumer sector, argues, this logic has flipped. Today, new-age brands are emerging in physical retail before leveraging ecommerce for scale. Examples such as Koskii, Kama Ayurveda, Wonderchef, Wagh Bakri, Cello, Neeru’s and Lahori Zeera have crossed the INR 100 Cr threshold through this reverse route.

The channel of origin no longer defines D2C; instead, it is about control — over consumer data, product, distribution, and unit economics. Analysts, VCs and operators now agree that 2026 will test discipline more than ambition. The age of “growth at all costs” is giving way to efficiency, sharper execution and predictable paths to profitability.

“The Indian ecommerce sector is moving away from ‘growth at all costs’ to sustainable economics. The margin narrative has become extremely important now, and unless a brand is able to prove sustainable unit economics, even consolidations will be tough,” said Mani Singhal, managing director and co-lead of Alvarez & Marsal’s consumer and retail practice for India.

Owned Channels Take Priority

Ecommerce marketplaces and quick commerce have served as powerful early-stage growth engines for D2C brands, providing rapid entry but shallow stickiness. Consumers chase deals, and algorithms tend to prioritise winning SKUs, meaning visibility is short-lived.

According to Kapoor, consumer trust may be higher on these platforms, but their systems “prefer one brand over another organically,” favouring quality leads from a brand’s own social channels. As the new Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) rules tighten access to customer data, relying on marketplaces alone will become harder.

This is pushing brands to invest more in owned channels. Marketing, storytelling and community building are increasingly rooted in a brand’s website or offline centres, while fulfillment continues through Blinkit, Instamart or Zepto — a complementary model instead of an either-or choice. Furniture and home decor companies like The Sleep Company and Wakefit demonstrate the benefits of this strategy, achieving faster growth than legacy players primarily through owned channels.

“This multi-channel maturity will ultimately define winners. For brands that have scaled and sustained growth, a large share of business coming from their own channels — D2C or offline — will be key to category leadership,” said Rajiv Batra, director and consumer sector lead at PE giant ChrysCapital.

That said, quick commerce visibility demands intelligent inventory placement. Many brands face stretched central warehouses and must synchronise demand signals at the dark-store level to avoid stockouts.

“The real challenge is synchronising demand signals at the dark-store level and refining a dynamic ordering system so stockouts don’t occur as volumes scale,” noted Kannan Sitaram, cofounder of Fireside Ventures, one of the most notable consumer brands investor in India.

Channel Strategy Becomes More Complex

Quick commerce has added new complexity to how D2C brands manage channels. Early-stage players often derive 70–80% of their revenue here, but as they scale towards INR 100–300 Cr, about 25% usually comes from offline. Building a sustainable omni-channel model demands alignment across sales, supply chain and marketing, since engagement may begin online even if the final purchase happens offline or vice versa.

“This entire mix only works on the back of strong margins. D2C brands generally need 50–70% gross margins to sustain multiple channels and still move towards contribution positivity. Anything below 50% makes long-term sustainability difficult,” said Inflection Point Ventures’ founder Vinay Bansal.

Going offline brings its own playbook: rent ratios of 10–15%, inventory discipline, and store-level EBITDA targets of 5–10%. Bansal noted that physical retail demands a distinct operational DNA, while analysts agree few have mastered true omnichannel integration.

“Omnichannel, in its truest sense, is still a work in progress. Click-and-collect works in limited formats with tightly integrated store networks, but the seamless ability to buy online and fulfil from any nearby store is yet to become an operational reality at scale,” added Alvarez & Marsal’s Singhal.

Vertical quick commerce — in niches like luxury fashion, organic food, kids’ products and beauty — is expected to intensify competition further. Meanwhile, rising marketing and inventory costs now test profitability. Platforms increasingly push for higher ad spend, while multi-warehouse inventory raises carrying costs, making operational efficiency critical.

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From an investor lens, ChrysCapital’s Rajiv Batra points to three metrics — gross margin, CM2 (contribution margin after all expenses, including marketing), and EBITDA.

“As the business scales up, the metrics remain the same but how gross margins translate to CM2 and eventually EBITDA is what will dictate valuations given in absence of steady state EBITDA, gross margins and CM2 end up being a predictor of steady state economics and accordingly businesses would get valued,” he explained.

Competition Intensity Will Demand New Strategies

Competition among quick commerce platforms is heating up. From a handful of players a few years ago, marketplace giants like Myntra and Flipkart have now joined the race. Yet, profitability remains elusive as people costs, inefficiencies, loss-making SKUs and limited shelf space weigh on P&Ls.

Platforms have ramped up dark store investments to fuel growth, but the real challenge, according to Kapoor, lies in consumer behaviour: “The biggest performance metric would be traffic and post-traffic will be conversion. And the third one would be that the whole reverse logistics has to be optimised.”

With most users juggling two to three quick commerce apps, platforms compete to become the default choice. Winning this battle requires not just speed but also differentiation. Late entrants launching “10-minute delivery” features face an uphill climb since market leaders already have strong assortments and loyalty.

Marketplaces now feel compelled to build hyperlocal networks too, but replicating the speed of quick commerce isn’t enough. The true contest is for “first-app preference” and consolidated spending.

“Coming from behind in hyperlocal will be tough, and there’s no certainty on how large the segment can actually become. Add to this the regulatory complexities such as GST rule changes, FDI compliance, evolving state-level ecommerce norms will continue to haunt startups,” said Singhal.

Affordable-Premium Convergence

Amazon India’s vice president Saurabh Srivastava observes that “a defining trend shaping 2026 will be customer duality: Indian customers are choosing premium products across categories while simultaneously seeking affordable, high-value essentials.”

He cited that smartphones above INR 20K grew nearly 50% year-over-year, alongside robust demand for premium apparel, jewellery, and smartwatches. Meanwhile, mass segments such as Amazon Bazaar and SERVE — targeting tier 2/3 buyers and Gen Z consumers — recorded strong growth.

Kapoor underlined that India’s consumption is increasingly brand-driven and no longer confined to metros.

“Exposure to content is now fully democratic,” he noted, leading to aspirational consumer behaviour even in smaller towns. He cautioned against assumptions that spending power is concentrated in urban areas. Studies show that the top 20% of Indian households — the real consumption segment — are evenly split between urban and rural markets.

Lower cost of living also amplifies discretionary spending potential outside metros. After essentials like food, utilities, EMIs, logistics, healthcare and education, tier 3–5 consumers often enjoy larger discretionary wallets than their metro counterparts.

At the same time, the “premium” segment is shifting from pricing-based to curation-led. In categories such as ethnic wear and athleisure, value lies in sourcing unique products and building back-end ecosystems that can scale while maintaining exclusivity.

Selling a high-value Kantha or Sambalpuri piece is easy — fulfilling hundreds of such unique orders consistently is the real challenge. Scalability and supply chain resilience, therefore, become crucial differentiators.

AI’s True Impact On Bottomline

Most analysts and industry leaders we spoke to believe that it’s still too early to see a meaningful impact of AI across these key decision making areas. Although the early signs of value add are showing promising results.

However, as Singhal noted, a major theme emerging among CXOs is the uncertainty around where AI will actually create measurable value. Leaders know AI can do a lot, but they still don’t know which use cases will truly show up in the P&L.

The questions are open: will the impact come from the catalogue layer through better merchandising and personalisation? Or from sharper inventory and demand forecasting, especially in categories like perishables and fashion?

Customer service chatbots exist, but brands are still figuring out how to blend AI with human reassurance. New ideas are also surfacing such as AI-generated influencer videos, AI-curated UGC, and more, but their commercial impact remains unclear.

In her view, this isn’t a challenge as much as a defining trend: the industry is now on a serious hunt for AI use cases that deliver tangible top-line or bottom-line outcomes. And that answer is still unresolved.

“It is not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ and the impact here would be exponential and not linear. Therefore, market leaders in their sectors are embracing AI in a meaningful manner across marketing, demand estimation and supply chains. In not 2026, then 2027/2028 will definitely see businesses embracing this in full swing,” added Batra.

A Push To Drive Customer Lifetime Value

Platforms are shifting their marketing priorities towards ecosystem engagement and long-term customer value. As Accel’s lead investor in consumer segment Manasi Shah noted, ecommerce players and quick commerce apps are now “doing a lot more for valued customers,” including benefits designed to deepen loyalty.

Targeted marketing to smaller cohorts is becoming central. Brand communities will evolve into granular subcultures, even “segments of one,” built around narrow affinities. This personalised engagement will increasingly rely on AI and data insight. While full-scale implementation may take time, the direction is clear — brands are moving from mass communities to hyper-niche micro-cohorts.

The battle for consumer loyalty is intensifying. It’s like they’re trying to lock their customer into an ecosystem, driving consolidation among complementary brands and platforms. The logic is simple: once a customer is in, the question becomes how to deepen engagement and share of wallet.

“I think people will fight for that top 10 Mn customers. So marketing budgets may look different, or the allocation may be different. At the same time, the ROI of that marketing is still unclear as not many of us have enough visibility on how those economics work. Nobody really breaks it down,” Shah concluded.

In sum, India’s D2C landscape is maturing fast. The growth template that once defined digital-first brands is being rewritten. Physical retail is back in the mix, margins now matter as much as scale, and sustainability has replaced the burn-fuelled chase for market share. The winners of this new phase will not be those who grow fastest, but those who grow the smartest — with channel balance, operational discipline and a clear route to profitability.