The excitement around Ola Electric has given way to fears about profitability, and the stock has been in something of a freefall. What fate awaits Ather in the public markets?
These two companies come from vastly different trajectories. Ola has gone for the blitzscaling approach, whereas Ather claims its long-term strategic investment is better for the automobile industry
So when we look at the Ather and Ola Electric battle — beyond sales and revenue — we have to consider the EV stack, the positioning of these two EV trailblazers
When Ola Electric was gearing up for its IPO, there was palpable excitement among investors for the first public offering from the automobile sector in two decades. In stark contrast, now that Ather Energy
is set for a public listing, the mood is sombre.
At least some of the excitement around Ola Electric has given way to fears about profitability, and the stock has been in something of a free fall as the market adjusts to the long trajectory for breakeven, and multiple years of losses for the Bhavish Aggarwal-led EV giant.
And with many investors now sitting on losses when it comes to their Ola Electric holding, naturally, there are some questions and concerns around Ather Energy’s valuation and the potential pricing of the INR 4,500 Cr+ IPO.
In the latest news, Ather Energy has secured the second spot in September 2024 sales. However, examining the FY 25 electric two-wheeler sales data, Ather has fallen to fourth place, losing its third position to Bajaj Chetak. Bajaj has increased its market share from 11% in FY 24 to 14% in FY 25, while Ather’s market share has declined from 12% in FY 24 to approximately 10% in FY 25.
Given that September 2024 sales have stagnated, Ather’s light asset model may appeal to investors as a calculated risk compared to the heavily invested Ola Electric.
However, given that EV benchmarks and multiples have not yet crystallised, Ola Electric is arguably the closest and truest comparison for Ather Energy. So with Ola Electric’s valuation now under $4 Bn after two months of listing after touching a high of nearly $8 Bn in August, is Ather Energy also risking a devaluation soon after listing?
Usually, the unlisted securities market is a great way for us to track the valuations and the pricing that pre-IPO companies might trend towards. According to reports, Ather Energy is targeting a valuation of around $2.5 Bn for its IPO, almost double the $1.3 Bn valuation at which it raised $70 Mn in August this year.
But as market observers told Inc42, the question is not just about valuation alone. It’s also about key differences in the business models i.e the vertical integration at Ola Electric and Ather Energy.
Among the key differences are:
- Market Focus: Ola aims to produce mass-market vehicles, while Ather is perceived as a provider of premium vehicles.
- Battery Production: Ola Electric intends to manufacture its cells, whereas Ather relies on its vendors for battery supplies.
- Service and Experience Centres: Ola owns its 800+ experience centres and 431 service centres. In contrast, Ather has 130 experience and service centres, with only one owned by the company; third-party retail partners operate the rest.
These two companies come from vastly different trajectories. Ola has gone for the blitzscaling approach, whereas Ather claims its long-term strategic investment is better for the automobile industry.
In terms of sales, Ola Electric has outpaced Ather significantly in the past two years, but Ather still gets the thumbs-up from industry insiders when it comes to product quality. So when we look at the Ather and Ola Electric battle — beyond sales and revenue — we have to consider the EV stack, the positioning of these two EV trailblazers.
How Ather Energy Stacks Up Vs Ola
A straight apples-to-apples comparison is not possible though, given that Ola Electric is looking to build the complete stack for EVs, while Ather Energy is working more in the mould of an OEM.
For instance, as we highlighted recently, Ola Electric has nearly a dozen subsidiaries and is deeply involved in in-house manufacturing of key components—including battery cells. On the other hand, Ather Energy has consciously chosen to remain relatively asset-light, operating as a single registered company without entering the cell manufacturing sector, for instance, and has not committed to launching new products like Ola Electric.
Umesh Chandra Paliwal, founder and CEO of UnlistedZone, believes Ola’s model has its advantages, but it does require a lot more operational oversight.
By controlling the supply chain, especially when the battery along with controller constitutes about 50% of an EV’s manufacturing cost, Ola Electric can optimise production costs and improve its margins. Additionally, Ola operates its own showrooms and service centres, providing customers with a complete in-house experience that strengthens brand control.
In contrast, Ather manufactures EVs but does not produce its own batteries. Furthermore, Ather’s experience centres and service networks are managed by third-party partners as is the case for traditional ICE vehicles. And finally, Ather’s scooters are positioned as premium products, with a strong focus on delivering a high-quality user experience, which justifies their higher price point.
And this comparison reminds Paliwal and others of the battle between Apple and Android smartphone makers such as Samsung. Both models have proven effective to some extent, but each has its pros and cons.
Is Going Asset-Light In Ather’s Favour?
One key concern raised about Ather is that, unlike Ola Electric, Ather does have no control on 50% of its costs due to the dependency on others for the cells. This limits the EV company’s ability to reduce costs further, a problem that Ola has looked to tackle through vertical integration.
However, Vinkesh Gulati, a member of the executive committee, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, asserts that comparing Ather Energy with Ola Electric is unfair. Ather is viewed as a premium electric two-wheeler brand having technically advanced and unique products , while Ola is recognised for mass-market vehicles. As a result, even though Ather may not have control over cell costs, consumers are still willing to pay a premium for its products.
At the same time, as the EV sales tanked in September, 2024, Ather’s business model is being seen as more agile. The asset-light model does allow Ather to pivot more easily over time, especially for components and parts where technology standards change routinely. For instance, if sodium-ion batteries become the standard and lithium-ion technology becomes obsolete, Ather could quickly adapt to sodium without losing much in the process, unlike Ola, which would need to rewire a lot of its operations.
Unlike Ather Energy, Ola has taken on the task of cell manufacturing, and the establishment of gigafactories under the government’s PLI scheme is expected to accelerate this vertical.
What this means is that Ola might suffer from supply chain and pricing fluctuations for raw materials (such as cathode and anode minerals), especially as it scales up cell manufacturing and increases the domestic component mix as has been mandated by the government.
This is most evident from the fact that Ola spent nearly 100% of its annual revenue on procurement of materials alone in FY22 and FY23. This has reduced slightly in FY24, but given the revenue base, it is still a significant investment.
Ensuring access to raw materials will be increasingly important in the long run as the EV ecosystem grows, and companies need to implement de-risking strategies to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions, according to Gulati and others.
Raw materials account for over 60% of cell production costs, for instance. Given India’s dependency on imports for raw materials for cell manufacturing, future Ola Gigafactories may face pricing pressures from raw material suppliers and EV manufacturers.
In terms of R&D expenditure, Ola Electric outspends Ather. As of FY 2024, Ather allocates 6.6% of its operational revenue to R&D, while Ola Electric invests 7.69%. This investment is also reflected in their intellectual property (IP) portfolios. Ather has acquired 45 patents and has 210 patent applications pending, whereas Ola Electric has secured 88 patents and currently has 217 applications pending.
At the moment, it’s not clear whether Ather will invest in cell manufacturing in the long run, but for the time being, it does have a bit of a cost advantage in case there are any changes in terms of the battery technology or disruption to the raw material supply chain.
The disadvantage for Ather Energy, of course, is that since it is not manufacturing cells, it will have to spend more to acquire batteries for its vehicles in case of any supply chain disruptions, but Ather Energy has protected itself against a potential price hike by positioning its products in the premium price tier, as opposed to Ola Electric.
Are Ather EVs Better Than Ola Electric?
Despite not having complete control over its vehicle manufacturing, Ather’s electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) are perceived to be better than Ola Electric.
“Ola Electric may have invested significantly more in research and development, however, Ather Energy’s scooters are recognised for providing a superior riding experience compared to competitors,” according to a former head of Royal Enfield’s electric segment.
However, a cursory glance at the specifications shows that Ather trails Ola Electric’s product lineup in terms of vehicle range, speed, and motor power, some of the key aspects that appeal a lot to Indian EV buyers. Ather also struggles to match Ola Electric’s pricing perhaps due to the ‘scale’ differences.
So what makes Ather supposedly better than Ola? Often the reason is subjective.
One wonders how much of the premium charged by Ather goes towards ensuring that its customers have fewer complaints about the product quality.
“If you are positioning your brand as a premium offering, your advertising and marketing expenses will be higher, even if sales are lower. However, in Ather’s case, this spending has not translated into brand visibility or premium positioning. Things have improved over the last year, but I still believe Ather needs to reassess how it is spending its money in advertisements and marketing,” said an advertising expert who led multiple brand campaigns for one of the top five E2W manufacturers in 2023.
Despite being perceived as a premium brand, Ather is not currently charging or being able to charge a premium price from its customers. The branding cost therefore only adds to the cost without the ‘premium share’ of revenue. Ather certainly needs to improve its positioning in this regard, he added.
Experts believe that due to its procurement-led model, and the fact that it cannot match Ola’s capital investment in R&D, Ather is compelled to go for the premium category. The company is sacrificing volume for margins.
Why Valuation Will Be Critical
However, given the market sentiment for EV investments and Ather’s strong performance in terms of product value, experts believe Ather Energy’s IPO will be oversubscribed. However, like Ola Electric, it may witness a decline thereafter because Ather’s path to profitability is also not clear.
Unlistedzone’s Paliwal believes Ather Energy has made a compelling case for itself for investors thanks to the customer feedback on quality, Ather’s long-term strategy when it comes to the manufacturing platform, and its focus on the premium market, where Ola needs to prove itself.
These are good indicators for Ather Energy since they signal value to potential shareholders.
Plus, with Ola Electric’s successful listing providing a reference point to investors, Ather could benefit from the growing investor interest in the Indian EV sector, which is expected to grow at a robust 40-44% CAGR over the next five years, according to Paliwal.
That bullishness is tempered with the caution that the pricing and valuation will be a critical aspect for Ather’s IPO. As seen in the case of Ola Electric, the market cap is now hovering around INR 40,000 Cr, much lower than the listing valuation. Has Ather done enough to justify the $2.5 Bn valuation that it is said to be seeking in the IPO?
Cofounder and CEO Tarun Mehta has repeatedly emphasised that Ather Energy is undervalued in the private valuation landscape. How much merit does this claim hold? Ola Electric slashed its valuation by over 35% for its IPO to succeed and it’s still struggling to meet that valuation.
Ather Energy does not have the sales momentum of Ola Electric nor does it have the vertical integration, so does the company need to adopt a more cautious approach?
“Given Ather’s declining revenue in FY24 due to the reduction in subsidies and intense competition in the EV space, a valuation closer to $2 Bn may be more appropriate, providing a buffer against Ola Electric,” Unlistedzone’s Paliwal responded
So while Ather’s premium positioning and long-term strategic bet can attract investors, a more conservative valuation is perhaps better to stoke investor confidence.
[Edited By Nikhil Subramaniam]
