[Update] Swiggy Shares Rally 9% After Morgan Stanley Initiates Coverage With ‘Overweight’ Rating

SUMMARY

Swiggy shares surged over 9% to INR 365 during the intraday trading session on the BSE today

The surge in its stock price came after global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley gives overweight rating to Swiggy’s stock

Morgan Stanley gave Swiggy a price target of INR 405, 21.5% up from its last close (Tuesday)

Update | June 04, 04:30 PM

Shares of Swiggy surged over 9% to INR 365 during the intraday trading session on the BSE today following Morgan Stanley’s initiation of coverage with an ‘overweight’ rating.

The stock closed the trading session 8.73% up at INR 362.50 on the BSE today with its market capitalisation soaring to INR 90,394.70 Cr.

Till the close of market session today, more than 5.26 Cr shares traded hands.

The spike in Swiggy’s share price today also coincided with a surge in the benchmark indices. While NSE Nifty closed the trading session today 0.32% up at 24,620.20, BSE Sensex was also 0.32% up at 80,998.25 during the close.

Morgan Stanley raised the price target for Swiggy’s stock by 21.5% from its previous (Tuesday) close to INR 405.

The brokerage firm said that its rating for the stock is based on Swiggy’s improving execution in food delivery, expanding quick-commerce TAM (total addressable market) and aggressive investments.

While Swiggy has lost around 33% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, it has shown improvement in the last one month by gaining close to 5% as per its closing price today.

Morgan Stanley’s Projection For Swiggy

The brokerage firm expects Swigy’s current market share trends to sustain and the food delivery business to grow at a 15.8% CAGR (F25-28).

In the quick commerce segment, Morgan Stanley anticipates an overall TAM growth which can help Swiggy regain some market share and grow gross order value (GOV) at a 63% CAGR, F25-28.

“Revising quick commerce TAM estimates higher, to US$57bn by 2030, and assuming Swiggy maintains its market share,” it said.

The brokerage firm noted that its relative order of preference favours Eternal over Swiggy. It stated that Instamart’s market share in India’s quick commerce sector, relative to Eternal’s Blinkit, is expected to rise slightly over the next few years, from about 33% now to around 37% by fiscal year 2028.

On the financial front, Swiggy’s consolidated net loss increased 95% year-on-year (YoY) to INR 1,081.2 Cr in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the financial year 2025 (FY25) as quick commerce expansion weighed on the bottom line. On a sequential basis, the company’s loss jumped 35% from INR 799 Cr.

Operating revenue marked a healthy uptick during the quarter under review. The metric stood at INR 4,410 Cr, up 45% from INR 3,045.6 Cr in the year-ago quarter. On a quarter on quarter (QoQ) basis, the company’s top line expanded 10% from INR 3,993.1 Cr.

Notably, the Indian quick commerce market will reach $57 Bn by 2030, as per estimates by Morgan Stanley. It had earlier projected the TAM for the 10-minute delivery format at $42 Bn.