Morgan Stanley Raises Q-Comm Market Forecast To $57 Bn, Bets On Eternal

The Indian quick commerce market will reach $57 Bn by 2030, according to revised estimates by global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley. It had earlier projected the total addressable market (TAM) for the 10-minute delivery format at $42 Bn. 

The brokerage attributed the upward revision to four key factors: deepening penetration of online grocery through quick commerce, a sharp spike in monthly transacting users, expansion into over 100 non-metro cities through tailored delivery models, and growing consumer reliance on the segment. 

“On quick commerce platforms, the average spend per customer is touching $300 a year for the market leader Eternal (which runs food delivery app Zomato and quick commerce app Blinkit) and $250 for Swiggy (Instamart, the quick commerce arm),” said the report. 

Morgan Stanley has pegged the household spending on quick commerce at $1,630 by 2030, and spending by an individual user at $1,000. 

It expects quick commerce to account for approximately 3.7% (2.5% previously) of the Indian retail market by 2030 and 33% (18% earlier) of the ecommerce market by 2030. 

“This is primarily driven by an increase in the near-term size of the market, with our outlook for penetration in the grocery segment to be higher than we previously expected, up from 51% of the ecommerce market to 76% in 2030, based on our revised estimates,” it said.

Bullish Bets On Blinkit, Instamart

The accelerating momentum in quick commerce is giving the tailwind to the surge of Eternal’s Blinkit. In another report on Zomato, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed Zomato parent Eternal as its top pick, with an ‘overweight’ rating and set a price target of INR 320 on the stock, based on the Q4 earnings and limited risk of further equity dilution.

Morgan noted that its relative order of preference favours Eternal over Swiggy. The report further noted that Instamart’s market share in India’s quick commerce sector, relative to Eternal’s Blinkit, is expected to rise slightly over the next few years, from about 33% now to around 37% by fiscal year 2028.

 

The firm stressed on the broader adoption of 10–30-minute delivery services across more cities and households behind its bullish bet on Eternal.

“Our preference for Eternal over Swiggy stems from Eternal’s market leadership in both quick commerce and food delivery, superior cost structure driving healthy unit economics, stronger balance sheet that limits the risk of further equity dilution, and a potential floor of INR 200-220 for the stock, which implies sound risk-reward,” the firm noted in its report.

It also raised the price target for Swiggy’s stock by 22% (from the previous closing price) to INR 405. Morgan Stanley said it was confident of Swiggy’s improving execution in food delivery, expanding quick commerce TAM and aggressive investments in the space.

“The market is also currently pricing in heavy investments without fully factoring in the potential upside to the company’s topline,” it argued.

Shares of Eternal ended today’s trading session 1.53% lower at INR 237.60, while Swiggy closed 0.6% higher at INR 333.50 on the BSE.