Note: Before I begin, I would like to clarify the difference between market potential and revenue estimate. I have often seen entrepreneurs use the two terms interchangeably.
Market Potential is about estimating the size of the overall market opportunity. It is a sum total of the potential revenues of all players who are addressing that opportunity, if all the potential customers were to buy. I.e. If you were selling ‘affordable’ golf kits for first-time golfers, then you could estimate market potential as follows (all numbers are indicative for illustration and do not represent actual market) :
- There are about 20 millon golfers across the top 10 golfing markets in the world. Additionally, about 100,000 new people take up golf every year across the top 10 golfing markets in the world.
- About 25% of these find the cost of golf kits expensive. If you take this as the addressable market at USD 400 a kit for 5 million buyers, we are addressing a USD 2 bn market opportunity, even if you look at only those who find the price of current golf kits too high.
- Additionally, the ‘high-quality at lower price’ value proposition is likely to attract regular and casual golfers too i.e. 20 million golfers. This opens up a USD 8 billion market among existing golfers. And that’s a market growing at 15% pa.
- However, given that most people who want to play golf do not take it up because the current kits cost upwards of USD 1500, we believe that a USD 400 kit will explode the market and we would be able to encourage 10 times the number of people to start playing golf. I.e. by redefining the price-point, we can create an additional market potential worth over USD 500 mn.
- i.e. with an ‘affordable and high-quality golf kit’, we will be playing into a market that’s roughly USD 8 – 10 billion in the top 10 golfing markets of the world.
Revenue estimate is about how much of this market potential do you plan to target. Here’s how you could think about it:
- We intend to launch this product in Japan, the world’s largest and fastest-growing golfing market. There are 3 million active golfers in Japan and over 50,000 new golfers are added every year.
- We believe that with an affordable golf kit, we could double the size of the golf market in Japan.
- In year one, we intend to attract 5000 customers, going to 20,000 customers in year 2 and selling to 100,000 new and existing golfers in year 3. These will be in the top 5 golfing markets in Japan. In year 4, we intend to take the concept to US and Europe, with a target to sell over 500,000 kits in year 4, across all markets we are present in.
- Thus, our revenue estimate (at current prices) is USD 2 mn in year 1, USD 8 mn in year 2, USD 40 mn in year 3 and USD 200mn in year 4. (In comparison, the leading golf kits brand is doing USD 2 bn in revenues currently)
Estimating the size of the market, and then predicting how much revenue the startup can achieve and at what growth rate is indeed a tricky exercise. But going wrong on this could either kill your company, or if in a rare case you have underestimated your revenues, you may end up raising more capital than necessary and thus diluting more equity at an early stage of the venture.
It is therefore very, very critical that entrepreneurs focus on working and reworking on the market size and revenue potential based on sound assumptions and with minute detailing.
Many startups make the mistake of taking broad brush reports from large consulting or research firms, and estimate the size of their market on the basis of those reports. Often we hear entrepreneurs mention “According to Gartner, healthcare is a $80Bn industry with a 23% growth rate”. Now, while this could be broadly true, for an investor, and even for the startup, these figures have little relevance. Here’s why…